Caribbean Economy To Grow 5.6% In 2026 – But Just 1.1% Without Guyana, ECLAC Says 

By NAN Business Editor

News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Fri. August 21, 2026: The Caribbean economy is projected to grow by an impressive 5.6% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027, but new United Nations data show that one country is dramatically altering the regional picture: Guyana.

Without Guyana, Caribbean economic growth falls to just 1.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, according to the newly released Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC.

The striking difference illustrates the growing economic divide between oil-rich Guyana and much of the rest of the Caribbean. ECLAC forecasts Guyana’s economy will expand by 16.2% this year before accelerating to 19.7% in 2027. No other Caribbean economy comes close. Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada and Suriname share second place in the 2026 rankings, with projected growth of 3.5% each.

Caribbean Growth Forecasts Ranked

Source: ECLAC. Forecasts based on information available as of July 28, 2026.

Jamaica Forecast To Contract

At the opposite end of the table is Jamaica. ECLAC forecasts a 1.2% contraction in 2026, followed by a recovery to 2.5% growth in 2027.

Trinidad and Tobago is expected to post the second-weakest Caribbean performance this year, growing only 0.8%, before improving modestly to 1.5% next year.

Suriname, meanwhile, is forecast to accelerate from 3.5% growth in 2026 to 4.4% in 2027, putting it behind only Guyana among the Caribbean economies listed for next year.

The Bahamas is projected to grow 2% this year and 2.2% in 2027, while Barbados is forecast at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

Caribbean Growth Outpaces Wider Region – On Paper

The Caribbean’s headline performance also appears exceptional when compared with Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole. ECLAC expects the wider region to grow only 2.2% in 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025, before recovering to 2.5% next year. But once Guyana is excluded, the Caribbean’s 1.1% growth forecast actually falls well below the wider regional projection.

ECLAC warns that the region remains caught in a prolonged period of weak economic expansion. If its latest forecasts prove correct, Latin America and the Caribbean will have experienced five years of average growth of approximately 2.3% – a pace the UN body considers insufficient to sustainably raise per-capita income and close development gaps.

Investment, Debt And Informality Remain Challenges

The problem extends beyond GDP growth. ECLAC identifies weak investment, slowing formal employment creation and persistent labor informality among the structural constraints limiting the region’s economic potential.

Nearly half of employed people across Latin America and the Caribbean continue to work informally, according to the report. The Commission argues that formal companies are better positioned to exploit economies of scale, adopt innovation, access financing and build productive capabilities.

Caribbean governments also continue to face substantial fiscal constraints. Gross public debt in the Caribbean stood at approximately 73% of GDP in 2025, according to ECLAC, while high financing costs and growing interest payments constrain governments’ ability to increase public investment and fund economic transformation.

The new projections therefore tell two Caribbean economic stories. One is a region apparently racing ahead at 5.6%. The other is a Caribbean outside Guyana growing at barely 1.1%. For businesses, governments and investors, the difference between those two numbers may be more revealing than the headline forecast itself.

READ MORE: For the investor analysis and what the country-by-country forecasts could mean for capital and investment, read “Caribbean Growth Forecast 2026–2027: Guyana Powers Regional Expansion, But The Numbers Reveal A Two-Speed Economy” on Invest Caribbean.

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