Growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, supported by resilient tourism inflows, a strong pipeline of investment projects and targeted government support for households and businesses
CAIRO, Oct. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire-HISPANIC PR WIRE/ — African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has released its latest Barbados Country brief, offering a comprehensive and timely analysis of the island nation’s macroeconomic outlook. The brief explores key regional and international trade dynamics, financial sector developments and debt sustainability trends.
The brief highlights that Barbados has exhibited resilient growth following the Covid-19 pandemic, with GDP growth averaging 5.6% between 2021 and 2026, driven by a robust resurgence in tourism. Growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, supported by resilient tourism inflows, a strong pipeline of investment projects and targeted government support for households and businesses.
Central to this transformation is Barbados’ IMF-backed Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme. The brief notes that the original BERT programme concluded successfully in 2025, with the IMF Executive Board approving a new 36-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement of USD257 million in June 2026 to support the next phase of structural reform. This reflects the international community’s confidence in Barbados’ policy track record and the market’s commitment to building a resilient and diversified economy.
This brief edition also explores the high-income island nation’s impressive fiscal consolidation. Public debt has declined from 104.1% of GDP at end-FY2023/24 to 96% of GDP at end-March 2026, backed by a primary fiscal surplus of 4.2% of GDP in FY2025/26. The government’s medium-term framework targets sustained primary surpluses of 3.5% of GDP, placing public debt on a firm trajectory towards the 60% of GDP anchor by FY2035/36. The IMF assesses the overall risk of sovereign stress as moderate, reflecting Barbados’ strong and consistent policy track record.
On trade, the brief points to a steadily strengthening external position. Total goods and services trade grew from USD4.1 billion in 2018 to USD5.5 billion in 2024, with further expansion to USD6.3 billion projected in 2026. Barbados’ services balance remains a key pillar of strength, underpinned by tourism inflows that grew 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026, bolstered by a 30% year-on-year jump in cruise ship arrivals.
The brief further highlights developments within Barbados’ deep and diversified financial sector. In June 2026, the Central Bank of Barbados launched BiMPay, a national instant payment system enabling round-the-clock settlements and broadening financial inclusion. This represents the latest in a series of measures to strengthen the efficiency and resilience of the country’s financial infrastructure.
Commenting on the brief, Dr Yemi Kale, Afreximbank’s Group Chief Economist and Managing Director, Research and Trade Intelligence, noted: “The findings highlight Barbados as a dynamic, reform-driven economy whose resilient fundamentals, stable governance and deepening regional ties position it as an increasingly compelling partner for trade finance and development cooperation across the Caribbean.”
Read more about the Afreximbank Country Brief on Barbados https://apo-opa.co/47NXZPE
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.
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About Afreximbank:
African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is a Pan-African multilateral financial institution mandated to finance and promote intra- and extra-African trade. For over 30 years, the Bank has been deploying innovative structures to deliver financing solutions that support the transformation of the structure of Africa’s trade, accelerating industrialisation and intra-regional trade, thereby boosting economic expansion in Africa. A stalwart supporter of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Afreximbank has launched a Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) that was adopted by the African Union (AU) as the payment and settlement platform to underpin the implementation of the AfCFTA. Working with the AfCFTA Secretariat and the AU, the Bank has set up a US$10 billion Adjustment Fund to support countries effectively participating in the AfCFTA. At the end of December 2025, Afreximbank’s total assets and contingencies stood at over US$48.5 billion, and its shareholder funds amounted to US$8.4 billion. Afreximbank has investment grade ratings assigned by China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd (CCXI) (AAA), GCR (A), Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) (A-), Moody’s (Baa2) and S&P Global Ratings (BBB+). The Bank is headquartered in Cairo, Egypt. Afreximbank has evolved into a group entity comprising the Bank, its equity impact fund subsidiary called the Fund for Export Development Africa (FEDA), and its insurance management subsidiary, AfrexInsure (together, “the Group”). The Bank is headquartered in Cairo, Egypt.
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